The Sothic Cycle Continues

Below, I wrote regarding the floating of the obelisk of Hatshepsut on the river to Thebes:

"The best compromise would be that, by Year 16 of Hatshepsut, Sothis should probably be sighted sometime toward the end of the 3rd month of Shomu, signalling the start of the flood season, and that, by the end of the 4th month, when the obelisk was ready to leave Aswan, the inundation should be REALLY high in time to float the great stone downstream."  [Addendum of October 14, 2011:  The start of the flood season in Year 16 should have begun around Day 20 of the third month of Shomu.]

38 more years would follow until the end of the reign of Thutmose III and the civil calendar should have slipped by about 9 days.  There is the inscription on what is called the Elephantine Stela, which does not bear the name of a king [or the year of his kingship] but which has been ascribed to Thutmose's long rule because it states that a Sothic rising occurred on the 28th day of the third month of Shomu.  Later this month would be called "Epiphi".   So far we are on schedule, but....

TT192 is the tomb of Kheruef, an official of the time of Amenhotep III.  This tomb is dated to the end of the reign of the latter because his son also appears there as king--before he became Akhenaten. This indicates either a co-regency or a time of transition, a point much argued.  Evidently Kheruef helped organize two of the jubilees of Amnehotep III, in years 30 and 37 [I am not sure if Kheruef mentions the second one in Year 34.]. By Year 30 about 70 years should have lapsed since the passing of Thutmose III.  By now the sighting of Sothis should be happening in the middle of the fourth month of Shomu, but there is a text from the tomb on a wall dedicated to the first Heb-sed or jubilee. 

Amenhotep is shown in a barque with Queen Tiye and others and one translation is "Beginning the journey by [his majesty at the time] of the High Nile in order to transport the gods of the jubilee by water." 
At left, the date looks like "Year 30, month three [of] Shomu" to me  and I can't even read the day.  Regardless, it seems hardly possible that this can have been the time of the inundation in Year 30 of Amenhotep III.  If correct, the pEbers is meaningless and the Elephantine Stela must belong to a reign following that of the third Amenhotep. Since the inscription is most likely a retrospective one, a scribal error can have been made or even a lapse by the stone cutter.  The transporting of the gods should have taken place during the 4th month of Shomu if it was the time of the actual inundation because soon there needed to be a "wHm mswt" or New Era occurring in the reign of Seti I.  That would mean that  the civil calendar and the natural seasons would be in sync once more with the Nile flood occuring in the first month of the first season, Akhet, where it would in a "perfect year". 

Addendum of Aug. 27:  I finally managed to check the  Oriental Institute's The Tomb of Kheruef: Theban Tomb 192. The Epigraphic Survey.  The text of the barque scene is discussed on page 54.  Here the reading is "Year 30, third month of the third season, day...." and reaches the same conclusion I did.   The text regarding the Nile is "Hm=f   r  tr  n Hapi  aA" but footnote "e" says "the date of this text actually falls several months before the advent of a high Nile; see the remarks of  H. W. Helck" and the reference is "Nilhohe und Jubilaumsfest", ZAS 93 (1966) 78-79.  Thus, Helck seems to have agreed with me that the text is incorrect regarding a high Nile, but it is only one month off where the start of the season of inundation and the heliacal rising of Sothis is concerned.